Macro Theme:

Key dates ahead:

Founder’s Note:

Futures are off 25bps as we enter the final trading week of 2025.

Post OPEXMas we’re shifting to a neutral stance for equities, as we have the large JPM strike above at 7k, which expires Thursday PM, but mainly negative gamma below. We see this best in the EquityHub SPX GEX, which shows that the positive gamma <=6,900 is purely 0DTE(solid line = all exp GEX) – if you remove that you see sharp negative gamma below (dashed line, GEX – today’s exp). Should we get a close above 6,950 then we’d have to lean toward a push into the 7k strike as the JPM magnet may take over, but that strike starts to lose pull without a move >6,950.

Further, we’re coming off of a period with some of the lowest vols ever seen (SPX in the 4%s!), and so vol really has no where else to go but up. Yes, you could have a “stock up, vol up” move, but that needs a clear catalyst and one would think that 7k strike would force things to pin into 7k (which would stuff vol). In the case for downside, all we need is a move <6,900 then momentum/gamma/vanna can invoke a correction.

Backing the idea of “IV tethered higher”, we see that SPX forward IV is higher for all expirations going forward. This is essentially a read that dealers are sitting on vol over the holiday-heavy period.

Lastly, silver is taking over fintwit – and so are bad takes: “its the end of the financial system”, “the banks are so screwed”, etc. We don’t know much about commodities, but hype/YOLO/FOMO are cross asset psychological phenomenons. What we can say is that SLV IV Rank is 100% and there is clearly a turn to put skew. That is weird give SLV has been ripping to continuous ATH’s, and it was GLD in early October that did this same thing (put skew into ATH). SLV had a +90th% IV Rank and Call Skew on Dec 1, and that led to a brief 1-week (lol) consolidation before the FOMC sparked this second (big) leg higher.

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