Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/19: VIX Exp, FOMC Mins 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER On 2/11 we recommended buying SPX ~1-month calls as a way to hedge a right tail move. Our data suggests calls are cheap (ex: 3/13 exp 25 delta call = 10.6% IV ref 6,200). We flip to...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/19: FOMC Mins 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER On 2/11 we recommended buying SPX ~1-month calls as a way to hedge a right tail move. Our data suggests calls are cheap (ex: 3/13 exp 25 delta call = 10.6% IV ref 6,200). We flip to risk-off/short...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/12: CPI + Powell Testimony 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER On 2/11 we recommended buying SPX ~1-month calls as a way to hedge a right tail move. Our data suggests calls are cheap (ex: 3/13 exp 25 delta call = 10.6% IV ref 6,200). We flip to...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/12: CPI + Powell Testimony 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER On 2/11 we recommended buying SPX ~1-month calls as a way to hedge a right tail move. Our data suggests calls are cheap (ex: 3/13 exp 25 delta call = 10.6% IV ref 6,200). We flip to...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/11: Powell Testimony 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER On 2/11 we recommended buying SPX ~1-month calls as a way to hedge a right tail move. Our data suggests calls are cheap (ex: 3/13 exp 25 delta call = 10.6% IV ref 6,200). We flip...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/11: Powell Testimony 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flip to risk-off if SPX trades <6,000. 6,100 - 6,120 is a major band of resistance into 2/12 CPI. Key SG levels for the SPX are: Resistance: 6,100, 6,120 Support: 6,050,...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/7: NFP 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flip to risk-off if SPX trades <6,000. 6,100 - 6,120 is a major band of resistance into 2/12 CPI. Key SG levels for the SPX are: Resistance: 6,100, 6,010, 6,120 Support: 6,040, 6,020,...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/7: NFP 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flip to risk-off if SPX trades <6,000. The 6k price level remains a sensitive spot for SPX, as major declines can occur from this "simmering" but not "overpriced" vol position. Key SG...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/7: NFP 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flip to risk-off if SPX trades <6,000. The 6k price level remains a sensitive spot for SPX, as major declines can occur from this "simmering" but not "overpriced" vol position. Key SG...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/7: NFP 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flip to risk-off as SPX traded <6,000. The 6k price level remains a sensitive spot for SPX, as major declines can occur from this "simmering" but not "ovepriced" vol position. Key SG...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 2/3: ISM PMI 2/7: NFP 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flipped to risk-off as SPX traded <6,000. This is a very sensitive spot for SPX (5,950, VIX 20), as major declines can occur from this "simmering" but not "ovepriced" vol...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 1/30: Jobless Claims/GDP, AAPL/INTC earnings 2/3: ISM PMI 2/7: NFP 2/12: CPI 2/21: OPEX 2/26: NVDA ER We flip to risk-off if SPX trades <6,000. Key SG levels for the SPX are: Resistance: 6,120, 6,150, 6,200 Support: 6,100, 6,050,...