Macro Theme:   Key dates ahead: 5/16 OPEX 5/21 VIX Exp 5/13: With the SPX >=5,825, we see Friday's OPEX (5/16) as one of the most call-lopsided expirations ever. We think this may lead to a market correction next week. 5/12: Following the US/China trade...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 5/13 CPI 5/15 PPI 5/16 OPEX 5/21 VIX Exp 5/13: With the SPX >=5,825, we see Friday's OPEX (5/16) as one of the most call-lopsided expirations ever. We think this may lead to a market correction next week. 5/12: Following the US/China...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 5/11: US/China Tariff Meeting 5/13 CPI 5/5: We continue to see a negative volatility premium in the S&P500, which validates owning 1-2 month put spreads as referenced on 4/25. Those puts were hedged with short dated/Friday exp long...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 5/11: US/China Tariff Meeting 5/5: We continue to see a negative volatility premium in the S&P500, which validates owning 1-2 month put spreads as referenced on 4/25. Those puts were hedged with short dated/Friday exp long call...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 5/2: NFP 4/29: Based on the formation of light positive gamma >5,500, we look to be net long of stocks while SPX holds that level. We recommend short dated (May exp) calls or call spreads. This does not invalidate the view of owning...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 5/1: Jobless Claims, ISM, AAPL + AMZN earnings 5/2: NFP 4/29: Based on the formation of light positive gamma >5,500, we look to be net long of stocks while SPX holds that level. We recommend short dated (May exp) calls or call spreads....

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 4/30: PCE, Earnings: META, MSFT 5/1: ISM 5/2: NFP 4/29: Based on the formation of light positive gamma >5,500, we look to be net long of stocks while SPX holds that level. We recommend short dated (May exp) calls or call spreads. This...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 4/29: Bessent, JOLTS 4/30: PCE, Earnings: META, MSFT 5/1: ISM 5/2: NFP 4/29: Based on the formation of light positive gamma >5,500, we look to be net long of stocks while SPX holds that level. We recommend short dated (May exp) calls...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 4/30: Earnings: META, MSFT 5/1: ISM 5/2: NFP 4/25: <=25 delta 1-month S&P500 puts/put spreads make sense on a risk/reward basis given ATM IV in SPX is ~25%, which is at or below short term realized vol. This is not a call for a...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 4/30: Earnings: META, MSFT 5/1: ISM 5/2: NFP 4/25: <=25 delta 1-month S&P500 puts/put spreads make sense on a risk/reward basis given ATM IV in SPX is ~25%, which is at or below short term realized vol. This is not a call for a...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 4/24: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Earnings: INTC, GOOGL, AAL, PG, FCX 4/30: Earnings: META, MSFT 5/1: ISM 5/2: NFP 4/24 Update: The upside ~5,450 range was tested on 4/23, and rejected. We are now shifting max resistance to >=5,500,...

Macro Theme: Key dates ahead: 4/23: New Homes Sales, Earnings: BA, CMG, VRT, LVS, IBM 4/24: Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Earnings: INTC, GOOGL, AAL, PG, FCX 4/23: ES futures were up +2.5% pushing the SPX into our target resistance zone of 5,400 - 5,500. As such, we...