| Futures very quiet overnight and are currently around the 2800 level – a fairly remarkable lack of volatility given the last 2 months. On that note its worth mentioning that many risk systems use a 30 day trailing window to price volatility and other risk metrics. This means that the massive moves higher in VIX are now “rolling out” of the view of those systems. This could in turn indicate that those systems see a lower level of forward risk and that may lead to less hedging. VIX is certainly still quite elevated at ~40, but it was just over 30 days ago that it was around 80. To this point if the market does just consolidate around 2800 that should lead to a drop in VIX (and options implied vol) which is a bullish indicator. As we’ve mentioned many times before, lower implied volatility reduces put values which can lead to dealers buying back short hedges. Lastly we note that the SG Index made a decent move toward zero, as did notional gamma. All of these points can be summarized by saying that 2800 is our “fulcrum” and is holding this low volume market, waiting for a direction. Should the market push and hold up over 2800 that will bring positive gamma and the possibility of sustained stability. Conversely a move under 2800 could push into a larger volatility increase. This new data causes us to adjust our view towards “neutral” as we must wait for the market to show its hand. |
| Market Outlook: |
| Short term: 2800 important level: positive gamma and longer term stability above and higher volatility on move below. |
| Event | Time EST | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| No events | – | – | – | – |
| Signal Name | Latest Data | Previous |
| SPX Ref: | 2789 | 2789 |
| VIX Ref: | 41.73 | 41.98 |
| SG Gamma Index: | -0.17 | -0.50 |
| Gamma Per Point: | $-118.34MM | $-294.99MM |
| SGI Imp. 1SD Move: | 1.0% | |
| Zero Gamma Level: | 2903.0 | 2903.0 |
| Vol Trig: | 2795 | 2775 |
| High Gamma Strike Resistance: | 2825 | 3100 |
| Top Abs. Gamma Strike: | 2800 | 2800 |
| Put Wall Support: | 2500 | 2500 |
| Call Wall Strike: | 2825 | 3100 |
| CP Gam Tilt: | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| Delta Neutral Px: | 2817.0 | |
| Net Delta: | $14,206.16MM | $14,432.56MM |
| 25D Risk Reversal | -0.16 | -0.16 |
| Model Forecast: |
| Top Absolute Gamma Strikes: [2800, 3000, 2900, 2850, 2500] The Volatility Trigger has moved UP: 2795 from: 2775 The Call Wall has moved to: 2825 from: 3100 The High Gamma Strike has moved to: 2825 from: 3100 SPX is below the volatility trigger. The 2903.0 level is first level of resistance and is critical as its the negative gamma threshold. The trigger level of: 2795 will act as overhead resistance. Watching VIX is key, if volatility comes in dealers will start to buy back shares as their short puts lose value. This could start a rally. The total gamma has moved has moved UP: $-119.00MM from: $-295.00MM Gamma is tilted towards Puts, may indicate puts are expensive Negative gamma is moderate favoring further swings in the market |
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