| Futures have been fairly volatilie overnight touching ~3230 before selling to 3185 and recovering to 3200. Notional gamma reduces again, this is the second day of reduction after large call volume days. As a reminder we want to see call gamma build at strikes overhead to maintain a bullish stance, so this reduction is a bit concerning. We did see the High Gamma Strike jump way up to 3300 and this appears to be a function of call reduction and puts being added in and around 3200-3250 (as opposed to calls added at 3300). If you look at the OI Change charts youll see again we had a strip of calls removed <3200 albeit in less size than we saw Friday. Take the 3225 strike for example – volume was ~40k and we had a net removal of ~4k contracts (data here). My point with all of this is that it appears things are shifting in SPX. Its important to note that I think SPX has not had anywhere near the same movement as equity options (no record call position in SPX). However as I consider SPX an “institutional” product its important to note these changes. We obviosuly have the Fed tomorrow, and one day of shifts does not make a trend but I think its prudent to be on alert here. One of our colleagues noted the zero gamma/vol trigger being quite a bit below where we are trading, and its a good observation. I want to mention a few things about that: 1) OPEX can cause big jumps in these levels as contracts are removed. 2) Equities negative gamma – the force that pushed us up works both ways. Said another way the buying “gamma trap” can flip and dealers can start selling equities. 3) A volatility spike (VIX) also increases put values which could make the Zero Gamma level “jump”. To summarize, there are some shifts happeing and some reasons to think the market trend may be changing, but we arent yet hitting the panic button. For today we look at 3200 to be the pivot/pin area. We see two Combo levels at 3224 and 3172 which are support and resistance today. |
| Market Outlook: |
| 3100 support and 3200 resistance now for June OPEX. Below 3100 there is size at 3000. |
| Event | Time EST | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| No events | – | – | – | – |
| Signal Name | Latest Data | Previous |
| SPX Ref: | 3199 | 3224 |
| VIX Ref: | 26.73 | 25.81 |
| SG Gamma Index: | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Gamma Notional: | $454.16MM | $596.26MM |
| SGI Imp. 1SD Move: | 0.86 | 3172 | 3226 |
| Zero Gamma Level: | 3050.0 | 3043.0 |
| Vol Trig: | 3025 | 3025 |
| High Gamma Strike Resistance: | 3300 | 3200 |
| Top Abs. Gamma Strike: | 3200 | 3200 |
| Put Wall Support: | 2800 | 3180 |
| Call Wall Strike: | 3300 | 3200 |
| CP Gam Tilt: | 1.38 | 1.57 |
| Delta Neutral Px: | 2922.0 | |
| Net Delta: | $16,897.91MM | $16,727.66MM |
| 25D Risk Reversal | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| Model Forecast: |
| Top Absolute Gamma Strikes: [3350, 3300, 3250, 3225, 3200, 3150, 3100, 3050, 3000, 2900] The PutWall has moved to: 2800 from: 3180 The Call Wall has moved to: 3300 from: 3200 The High Gamma Strike has moved to: 3300 from: 3200 SPX resistance is: 3200 .Reference ‘Intraday Support’ levels for support areas. The total gamma has moved DOWN: $454.16MM from: $596.00MM Gamma is tilted towards Puts, may indicate puts are expensive Positive gamma is moderate which should lead to smaller market moves. Average Range on day is 1.5% |
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