| Futures are up testing the 3100 level which is the large gamma strike and key area for today. Overall the situation apppears unchanged from the last few notes. We don’t sense much stability here and its a matter of seeing which side can pick up the momentum before June options start shifting. While we have recaptured the zero gamma level, yesterday gave us a fairly weak addition to call positions and the improvement in notional gamma is more reflective of higher SPX/ES prices. Once again we saw small strips of puts closed, this time anything >=3070 saw net closure (curious given SPX closing at 3066). The picture for June OPEX in SPX still shows large call & put OI at 2900 and 2800, and we lack any impressive size at strikes above current SPX levels. If you recall yesterday we saw a concentration of levels at 3050 and today things have disperesed a bit. I think this reflects lack of sizeable options positions above, particularly as June OPEX decays. We’ve written before about this idea that (from a positioning perspective) the market can overrun where options are “pricing” it. For a bull run to maintain stability we like to see options rolled up and call positions (positive gamma) build overhead. The current data just seems to reflect fairly light interest above. Granted we are just a few days from OPEX where large positions can be rolled, but looking at todays data I couldn’t help but notice there isnt much happening in SPX calls. Maybe the lure of single stock calls is just too much to ignore. For today we note the Fed is speaking at 10AM EST which may set the tone. We see support at 3080 (Combo level) with 3050 key on a larger break. To the upside we don’t see much resistance until 3150. On the equity side we actually saw a small reduction in open interest and gamma for both puts and calls. Total call positioning still remains close to the highs seen last week with the bulk of equities still showing 6/19 as the largest expiration. |
| Market Outlook: |
| June support now sits at 3000, with resistance 3100 and then 3200 based on open interest levels. |
| Event | Time EST | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
| Core Retail Sales m/m | 5.5% | -17.2% | ||
| Retail Sales m/m | 7.9% | -16.4% | ||
| Fed Chair Powell Testifies | 10:00am |
| Signal Name | Latest Data | Previous |
| SPX Ref: | 3095 | 3075 |
| VIX Ref: | 33.85 | 34.4 |
| SG Gamma Index: | -0.20 | -0.48 |
| Gamma Notional: | $142.86MM | $20.37MM |
| SGI Imp. 1SD Move: | .75% | 3070.0 | 3120.0 |
| Zero Gamma Level: | 3041.0 | 3052.0 |
| Vol Trig: | 3065 | 3040 |
| High Gamma Strike Resistance: | 3300 | 3050 |
| Top Abs. Gamma Strike: | 3000 | 3000 |
| Put Wall Support: | 3040 | 3000 |
| Call Wall Strike: | 3300 | 3050 |
| CP Gam Tilt: | 1.09 | 1.01 |
| Delta Neutral Px: | 2914.0 | |
| Net Delta: | $16,672.76MM | $16,685.28MM |
| 25D Risk Reversal | -0.12 | -0.14 |
| Model Forecast: |
| Top Absolute Gamma Strikes: [3200, 3150, 3100, 3080, 3050, 3000, 2950, 2900, 2850, 2800] The Volatility Trigger has moved UP: 3065 from: 3040 The PutWall has moved to: 3040 from: 3000 The Call Wall has moved to: 3300 from: 3050 The High Gamma Strike has moved to: 3300 from: 3050 SPX resistance is: 3300. Support is: 3000 .Reference ‘Intraday Support’ levels for support areas. The total gamma has moved has moved UP: $142.00MM from: $20.00MM Gamma is tilted towards Puts, may indicate puts are expensive Positive gamma is moderate which should lead to smaller market moves. Average Range on day is 1.5% |
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