Ultimo Informe SG Levels

Futures rejected off of 4400 overnight and dropped down sharply to 4342. SpotGamma models forecast moderate volatility again today, with a est 1.19% open/close move. Overhead resistance remains at 4380 & 4400. Support lies at 4300 then 4279.

Because the geopolitical + monetary outlook remains uncertain there is no “risk on”, and demand for downside protection persists.

Through that lens our view of markets remains in line with that of the past several weeks: this is a market being moved about by the flow around put options. The rallies, like yesterdays, continue to be the function of short covering and 0DTE options flow. This short covering flow essentially runs out of fuel as markets approach gamma neutral, which we mark as 4400 (large open interest just above 4380 Vol Trigger).

As shown in the map below, its above 440SPY /4400SPX wherein there are positive gamma positions via call options (top right red square). This area is viewed as resistance, but also a zone wherein volatility should reduce. The bottom left zone highlights the large put positions which remain in place, and likely remain in place until mid March (FOMC + OPEX). Because these big put positions aren’t being closed, negative gamma persists, which leads to violent swings when the market is rejected at overhead resistance.

Until these puts are removed, we will continue to characterize rallies as short covering and therefore fragile. We would revise this outlook if/when we see significant call flows enter the market (which has not been the case).

Zooming out, material support on the downside shows at 4200, and then our “lower bound” rests at 4100. This “lower bound” is the area wherein we see reduced downside pressure from options hedging.