Macro Theme:

Key dates ahead:

Founder’s Note:

Futures are off 45 bps, leaving the SPX just below our 7,390 Risk Pivot line.

CL is 102, +1%.

VIX, which usually is higher on Monday, is marked at 19.29.

Tomorrow is VIX expiration, then we have the NVDA earnings event on Wednesday night.

TLDR: Dealer positioning reads as supportive of stocks. Some high-flying single stock names have been consolidating, which makes sense into Friday’s OPEX. The giant catalyst ahead is obviously NVDA earnings, with the lingering questions around the Iran situation. Mixed in amongst that is the SPACEX IPO, which is going to enter the conversation this week as filings are likely to start. We continue to like owning June VIX calls as a downside equity hedge, and will look to add some NVDA/TSLA type short dated calls/call flies for NVDA earnings and possible SPACEX pumping.

Gamma remains mildly positive for Market Makers. Support for today shows as 7,350, then at the relatively big put-spread for 0DTE at 7,320. There are several upside resistance call strikes/spreads that are 0DTE short: 7,400, 7,425, 7,460. This does not read like a market that is ready to spill sharply lower, but obviously one bad Iran headline can change that quickly.

Gamma for top stocks remains positive (shades of blue) for dealers, too, as you can see by the Top100 Gamma Map. This total gamma view shows gamma lightening up >5/21 – just after NVDA earnings.

We are likely to start hearing much more about the SPACEX IPO starting this week, as the IPO seems slated for June 12. This hits with the hotly anticipated NVDA ER.

Looking at single stock vols, major names are still leaning to the call side (right side of this chart), with IVs overall elevated (higher on the Y axis). This means that options are overall expensive, and people went into Friday leaning long. One could also read this as “no one wants puts”. Given these upcoming catalysts, we are treating the recent equity consolidation as consolidation, and not yet the start of a larger drawdown.

On the “overbought” topic, we focus a lot on the COR1M metric <8 as a clear sign of calls being too rich. On Friday AM the metric nearly tagged the 8 figure. Again, this is an index and so we don’t want to be too detailed with its marks – but we think that big NVDA ER + SPACEX could plunge this strongly <8 as calls catch a final wave of buying into big tech catalysts.

©2025 TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma

All TenTen Capital LLC DBA SpotGamma materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one’s financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. VIEW FULL RISK DISCLOSURE https://spotgamma.com/model-faq/disclaimer/